WARRIOR MET COAL, INC.
$83.35
−0.90 (−1.07%) · delayed · Nov 13, 2026
Five-year price
52w $71.80 to $111.42
- Market cap
- $4.4B
- Enterprise value
- $4.3B
- P/E
- 77.2×
- 16.6× on 3y avg EPS
- EV / EBIT
- 93.1×
- FCF yield
- 5.2%
- ROIC
- 2.3%
- Debt / equity
- 0.07
- Piotroski F
- 5/9
Value scorecard · FY2025
Does it pass the value tests?
Quality
67
- ●ROIC > 12% (5y avg)5y avg ROIC 29.1%
- ●ROE > 15% (5y avg)5y avg ROE 20.4%
- ○Stable operating marginsMargin volatility 14.4% (σ, 5y)
- ●Earnings convert to cashFCF / net income 198% (5y avg)
- ●Growing revenueRevenue CAGR 5y 10.8%
- ○Shrinking share countDiluted shares 2.8% over 5y
Value
20
- ○P/E below 15P/E 77.2
- ○EV/EBIT below 12EV/EBIT 93.1
- ○FCF yield above 6%FCF yield 5.2%
- ○Price below Graham NumberGraham Number $31.39
- ●P/B below 3P/B 2.1
Safety
60
- ●Debt / equity below 0.5D/E 0.07
- ●Debt payable in < 4 yrs of earningsNet debt $-0.1B
- ○Interest coverage > 8xCoverage 4.7x
- ●Current ratio > 1.5Current ratio 3.19
- ○Piotroski F-score ≥ 6F-score 5/9
Graham Defensive
14
- ○Adequate size (revenue > $2B)Revenue $1.3B
- ●Strong condition (current ratio ≥ 2)Current ratio 3.19
- ○Earnings stability (no loss, 10y)10 years of data
- ○Uninterrupted dividendsDividends paid every year on record
- ○Earnings growth ≥ 33% (10y, 3y avgs)EPS growth -54%
- ○Moderate P/E (≤ 15 on 3y avg EPS)P/E (3y avg) 16.6
- ○P/E × P/B ≤ 22.5Product 34.1
Valuation lab
What do you have to believe?
At $83.35, the market is pricing in about 4.7% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (9% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth).
Starting cash flow
Net debt −$146M · 53M shares · 5y revenue CAGR 10.8%
Intrinsic value
$132.92
Price
$83.35
Margin of safety
37%
What the price implies
The market is paying for 4.7% annual cash-flow growth for 10 years at a 9.0% discount rate.
Terminal value share
63% of the value sits beyond year 10.
Financial statements
A decade of the record.
USD millions · fiscal years · source: SEC 10-K XBRL
| Line item | FY16 | FY17 | FY18 | FY19 | FY20 | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 298 | 1,169 | 1,378 | 1,268 | 783 | 1,059 | 1,739 | 1,677 | 1,525 | 1,310 |
| Gross profit | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating income | — | 423 | 508 | 383 | (27) | 244 | 801 | 541 | 255 | 46 |
| Operating margin | — | 36.2% | 36.9% | 30.2% | -3.5% | 23.0% | 46.1% | 32.3% | 16.7% | 3.5% |
| Pre-tax income | — | 416 | 471 | 367 | (56) | 200 | 783 | 551 | 284 | 54 |
| Income tax | — | (39) | (226) | 65 | (20) | 49 | 142 | 73 | 33 | (3) |
| Net income | (50) | 455 | 697 | 302 | (36) | 151 | 641 | 479 | 251 | 57 |
| EPS (diluted) | — | 8.62 | 13.17 | 5.86 | -0.70 | 2.93 | 12.40 | 9.20 | 4.79 | 1.08 |
| Diluted shares | — | 53 | 53 | 51 | 51 | 51 | 52 | 52 | 52 | 53 |
Who owns it