PROGRESSIVE CORP/OH/
$235.78
+0.29 (+0.12%) · delayed · Nov 13, 2026
Five-year price
52w $189.20 to $241.02
- Market cap
- $136.6B
- Enterprise value
- $136.5B
- P/E
- 12.3×
- 17.6× on 3y avg EPS
- EV / EBIT
- —
- FCF yield
- 12.6%
- ROIC
- —
- Debt / equity
- 0.00
- Piotroski F
- 6/9
Value scorecard · FY2025
Does it pass the value tests?
Quality
75
- –ROIC > 12% (5y avg)5y avg ROIC n/a
- ●ROE > 15% (5y avg)5y avg ROE 22.5%
- –Stable operating marginsMargin volatility n/a (σ, 5y)
- ●Earnings convert to cashFCF / net income 345% (5y avg)
- ●Growing revenueRevenue CAGR 5y 15.5%
- ○Shrinking share countDiluted shares 0.1% over 5y
Value
50
- ●P/E below 15P/E 12.3
- –EV/EBIT below 12EV/EBIT n/a
- ●FCF yield above 6%FCF yield 12.6%
- ○Price below Graham NumberGraham Number $150.48
- ○P/B below 3P/B 4.5
Safety
100
- ●Debt / equity below 0.5D/E 0.00
- ●Debt payable in < 4 yrs of earningsNet debt $-0.1B
- –Interest coverage > 8xCoverage n/ax
- –Current ratio > 1.5Current ratio n/a
- ●Piotroski F-score ≥ 6F-score 6/9
Graham Defensive
67
- ●Adequate size (revenue > $2B)Revenue $87.7B
- –Strong condition (current ratio ≥ 2)Current ratio n/a
- ●Earnings stability (no loss, 10y)10 years of data
- ●Uninterrupted dividendsDividends paid every year on record
- ●Earnings growth ≥ 33% (10y, 3y avgs)EPS growth 352%
- ○Moderate P/E (≤ 15 on 3y avg EPS)P/E (3y avg) 17.6
- ○P/E × P/B ≤ 22.5Product 79.2
Valuation lab
What do you have to believe?
At $235.78, the market is pricing in about −6.8% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (9% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth).
Starting cash flow
Net debt −$138M · 579M shares · 5y revenue CAGR 15.5%
Intrinsic value
$1,203.63
Price
$235.78
Margin of safety
80%
What the price implies
The market is paying for −6.8% annual cash-flow growth for 10 years at a 9.0% discount rate.
Terminal value share
66% of the value sits beyond year 10.
Financial statements
A decade of the record.
USD millions · fiscal years · source: SEC 10-K XBRL
| Line item | FY16 | FY17 | FY18 | FY19 | FY20 | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 23,441 | 26,839 | 31,979 | 39,022 | 42,658 | 47,702 | 49,611 | 62,109 | 75,372 | 87,671 |
| Gross profit | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating income | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating margin | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pre-tax income | 1,471 | 2,139 | 3,164 | 5,160 | 7,173 | 4,210 | 922 | 4,904 | 10,713 | 14,223 |
| Income tax | 414 | 541 | 543 | 1,180 | 1,469 | 859 | 200 | 1,001 | 2,233 | 2,915 |
| Net income | 1,031 | 1,592 | 2,615 | 3,970 | 5,705 | 3,351 | 722 | 3,903 | 8,480 | 11,308 |
| EPS (diluted) | 1.76 | 2.72 | 4.42 | 6.72 | 9.66 | 5.66 | 1.18 | 6.58 | 14.40 | 19.23 |
| Diluted shares | 585 | 586 | 587 | 587 | 588 | 587 | 587 | 588 | 588 | 588 |
Who owns it